It is Veterans Day
Virtualization Critical Comparison – Chapter 10
As I write this, it happens to be Veterans Day. No, I never served, but have friends and family that have and did. I don’t have any family or friends in current service, but I wanted to say to those that maybe Veterans, that happen to read this blog… Thank You. If I had been able to serve, I would have. I believe all citizens of the United States should serve, as all citizens do, in Germany of today for example do. I take a very deep sense of pride in America, when non-citizens, became citizens, in serving in the Armed Forces. And to be clear, I thank you for every type or era of service from every armed service, from the Revolutionary War, to Civil War, to WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I and II, etc. I do not make delineations between peace keepings, police actions, or world wars, combat is combat, this is one lesson I learned at a young age listing to family and friends that participated in the various conflicts throughout recent history.
Moreover, I had close relatives on both sides of WWII, German and American. So I feel I have unique perspective from mein Grossvater who served in the German Technical Corps in Poland, in active combat with the Russians and Americans, as well as a Great Uncle, a pig-boat man and medic, who lost the back of his knee on a beach on Iwo Jima, because when they lost all the medics at one point, he was volunteered. There is nothing honorable or romantic, or even glorious, about combat. Saying thanks, and meaning it, I know has special meaning to all veterans that only they can appreciate.
As my best friend in high-school said, a former Marine, once said…Semper Fidelis, or Semper Fi, meaning Always Faithful, is a state of mind, not a motto. Thinking of this fact, I realized VMware is at a moment of truth, since it is facing an intense battle, a Battle Royale, really, against all comers. I discussed this at length with a good friend of mine at VMware recently, just after VMworld 2008. No, I will not name this person here, since to do so would not only violate their respective privacy, but since my blog is at times critical of VMware solutions, it would not be appropriate to create a perception of association, beyond our friendship of course, here, or with my, at times, intense views of VMware products. The basic discussion was an honest debate, in policy context, about how VMware should combat the threats, VMware sees in the virtualization sub culture of the Information Technology (IT) industry.
A standard SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis model is illustrative of the debated items within our discussion. MBA students hate these; I did when I got my MBA as well, professors love them, or so it seemed at the time. The itemization here is not exhaustive, but illustrative. I am sure many readers of this blog will find more items then are listed here, feel free to comment on such in reply to this blog as you would. All feedback is good, even that which we don’t enjoy, VMware are you listening? Sorry, was just too easy to say or type rather.
Strengths
- Market Share, VMware owns officially, last I looked at the various reports something close to 60% of the market? But with Datacenter adoption rates of only 10% or so, is this significant enough? The competition is getting stronger; well, Microsoft not withstanding, maybe VMware should acquire Citrix, Ironworks, Parallels, etc., just to eliminate confusing options to the potential customer base? VMware should focus on virtualization, even developing its own application instancing solution, which, is not based on VI? Something new and radical?
- Product Feature Set, no doubt VMware VirtualCenter (VC) is still key to the success of VMware, even with its scaling limits and top-heavy implementation of today, single point of failure (SPOF), it is, for now the best Ease-of-Use (EOU) solution for virtualization. HA, DRS, and UM have all added to this model, for EOU, while detracting from VC scaling and SPOF issues. Not to forget (Storage) VMotion, and VMware SRM. True, VMware IV 4 promises to address these issues, improve integration, but only time will tell how successful this is, or how well received.
Weaknesses
- Lack of focus on Enterprise client base, this is changing in VMware, but it took a long time for it to become reality, years in fact. As the economic situation worsens, it is only the Enterprise and strong growth segments in Healthcare, Financial (cough, those that survive), etc., which for the most part are very big globalized entities, which will have the resources to continue with VMware.
- Cost, VMware in comparison is expensive. Unlike Apple Computer, Inc. VMware can not survive on only the top 10 or 20% of the market share that will always need or be able to justify VMware cost over other solutions.
- Loss of true innovation? Has VMware lost its ability to innovate? Yes and No. Yes, in that we are not seeing the great insightful leaps from VMware as a leader in virtualization, but what new big advances are still to be made? Hypervisor, operating system isolation virtualization, is quite mature. Application instancing, streaming, and state-less solution delivery appear to be eclipsing virtualization. Cloud computing, utility computing, even Grid computing are all gaining acceptance, if slowly as concepts that Enterprise entities are struggling to define, delineate, and implement, of which virtualization as we know it today, is only part of the overall strategy that is typical.
Opportunities
- Innovation? Well, VMware is still acquiring or should I say is now almost completely, acquiring solutions, not really creating new solutions? Is that a fair statement? I think so, now. VMware has learned from Microsoft, that it is easier to purchase rather than innovate? This is an opportunity to be sure, but also a weakness.
- VMware cost model is its greatest weakness but also an obvious opportunity. But does VMware have the strategic will to convert a weakness to an opportunity? Can this opportunity offset the impact of the significant threat, Microsoft? Will VMware continue to be a high-priced option, and elite solution? Or will VMware become the Walmart of virtualization? Which strategic direction will force Microsoft to re-think its strategy?
- VMware must differentiate its self from the competition, showing values of its solution as superior thus, worth the investment. This is an opportunity that VMware only has as long as others continue to goof up, who are goofees, or is it goofies? Microsoft, with its rather weak, compared to VMware, Hyper-V solution, has established yet another opportunity for VMware to get crazy and surprise all of us again?
Threats
- Microsoft, is not the Borg, they are not that efficient or effective yet…I fear we have awoken a sleeping dragon, is just not accurate yet, and VMware knows this. Not to be confused with the famous phrase…I fear we have done nothing more than awaken a sleeping giant. I leave it to the readers to discover the famous context of the later phrase; the hints are WWII and Pear Harbor. Microsoft has goofed twice, well three times, first the failed to acquire VMware, then they never got Microsoft Virtual Server right, then Hyper-V was released, as was ESX 3i, before, in my view it was ready. This does not mean that Microsoft is not a threat, only that it is more potential than reality at this point. Hyper-V is weak, but System Center Virtual Machine Manager (SCVMM) for all its potential, is a disappointment to me. I really expect more from the Borg, I expect Microsoft to adapt much faster than they have so far. Still an emerging threat.
- Xen (Citrix or Red Hat), Virtual Iron, Parallels, Solaris Zones, etc., the various virtualization container models and smaller organizations all are threats that will become more significant over time, as long as VMware cost model is significantly higher than the others, but will they survive when VMware and Microsoft own virtualization? I would say they are a declining threat.
Well, Gartner is not as outspoken on this topic as they could be, which strikes me as odd. Maybe no one wants to predict what will happen? As for me, I am going back and look at VI 4 again, now that I just completed the deep dive on Hyper-V, and look at VMware VI 4, including ESXi, yes, I said ESXi, with a fresh perspective, being a good critic means revisiting conclusions and assumptions, no solution is static so no critic should be static. I also plan to look at the latest version of Xen, again, in light of pending VI 4 and recent Hyper-V analysis, and see if my original SWOT analysis as noted above holds true or not.
Oh, as for my friend at VMware, what were the applicable conclusions from their perspective? In brief, agreed with the strengths, and to some extent saw reasonable merits in the opportunities, especially the idea of differentiating value of VMware quality and depth of offering over cost, but disagreed to some extent with most of the weaknesses and threats, noting that Microsoft was an obvious future threat.
Since this person is my friend, I would not wish to offend, therefore, I did not ask…Did you enjoy the cool-aid? Instead, I thought to myself…What flavor was selected for next month, hoping the flavor selected would be agreeable. Cherry is just horrible, if I remember right. I am hoping for Grape, after all, I will be drinking it as well, because friends should never drink alone? Or I should say… I will be drinking it, at least until a strong and significant threat to VMware materializes. It is a question of when, not if, of course. All suggestions for future flavors of the month for cool-aid should be posted to this blog, the flavors the next 18 months or so, thinking of Microsoft for some reason since it took about that to get Hyper-V off the drawing board, are still open for selection. Don’t even suggest Cherry, yuck.
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